Air Research Challenges Conventional Wisdom On Hurricane Forecasting

One of the leading catastrophe modeling firms, AIR Worldwide Corporation, reported recently on research that indicates a higher number of tropical storms in the Atlantic does not always translate into a similar increase in hurricanes or, more importantly, hurricanes that hit the U.S. coastline.

"By only focusing on the 2004 and 2005 seasons, it is easy to forget that every hurricane season is unique, and actual landfall activity is a function of complex interactions between a range of environmental factors such as genesis location, sea surface temperatures and the depth of warm ocean waters, wind shear, and atmospheric steering," said Dr. Peter Dailey, Director of Research in atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide.

"The seasonal forecasters correctly projected that a higher-than average number of tropical storms would form in the basin in 2007," Dailey noted. "But it's much more difficult to predict not only how many of these storms will become hurricanes but more importantly how many will make landfall as hurricanes. Like many past seasons, the 2007 season showed that an elevated number of tropical storms does not always translate to more hurricanes or more landfalling hurricanes," Dailey stated.