U.S. REviews: June 1, 2001
With the hurricane season about to begin, it's a good time to update the outlook. While earthquakes aren't seasonal, some quake experts have residents of Westchester County just outside New York City sitting up and taking notice. So, what do the forecasters think is ahead?
Professor William Gray of Colorado State University, the hurricane guru, recently updated his forecast for 2001. He's now predicting 10 named storms, up from nine in the preliminary forecast issued in December last year. Six of the ten storms will be hurricanes, and two will be major, according to Dr. Gray. "We believe 2001 will prove to be less active than the very busy seasons of '95, '96, '98, and 2000 but definitely more active than the average of the 25-year period of relatively low activity we saw beginning in 1970. U.S. major hurricane landfall probability this year will be above average," Dr. Gray and his team predicted.
Looking farther ahead, Dr. Gray told the recent Florida Windstorm Insurance Conference to expect more frequent hurricanes in Florida and along the U.S. East Coast in the next few years. Speaking at the ground breaking for the National Center for Natural Disaster Safety, Dr. Gray also said the government spends too much on research into global warming and not enough on how to deal with natural disasters. Changes in the Atlantic and Caribbean create storm threats with higher impact than global warming, the catastrophe expert stated. He urged increased funding for natural disaster safety.
Responding to the increasing threat of severe wind damage, Florida is about to issue new building codes that will affect construction in areas subject to violent windstorms. Expected to take effect sometime next year, the new rules will require homes to be built to resist winds of 130 miles per hour in the coastal areas and 120 miles per hour inland.
On the earthquake front, Alexander Gates, a geology professor at Rutgers, warned that the Ramapo Fault that runs through New York City's densely populated suburb of Westchester County may be in for a major quake sometime in the near future. He pointed out that the last large quake along the fault was in 1884. Professor Gates is co-author of "The Encyclopedia of Earthquakes and Volcanoes" to be published later this year.
The San Francisco Bay Area may be in for some moderate quakes over the next five years or so, according to Tousson Toppozada, a seismologist with the California Division of Mines and Geology. His warning is based on a study of periods of calm followed by periods of quake activity in the region over the last 150 years. Meanwhile, the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development issued a report stating that 40 percent of hospital buildings in the state could collapse in the event of a significant earthquake. Estimates of the cost to retrofit the hospitals range up to $24 billion.
